Seven years ago, in the gauzy afterglow of a stirring election night in Chicago, commentators dared ask whether the United States had finally begun to heal its divisions over race and atone for the original sin of slavery by electing its first black president. It has not. Not even close. […] Read more »
The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016
In 2012, polling by Latino Decisions found that Mitt Romney won the support of just 23 percent of Latino voters. In 2016, the Republican presidential candidate will need twice that support to win the White House. The cause for the GOP’s “Latino deficit” is no secret and can largely be […] Read more »
Voters Were Just As Diverse In 2014 As They Were In 2008
As the United States becomes more diverse, Republicans are supposedly going to suffer. Nothing encapsulated this theory more than President Obama’s 2008 election, powered by nonwhite voters — mainly Hispanics, black people and Asians. In politics, “demographics are destiny,” as the saying goes. But that’s not right, as I have […] Read more »
African American Voters: The Overlooked Key To 2016
Many analysts have devoted endless hours to pondering the Republican Party’s woes with Latino voters and prescriptions for how the party can fix them in time for 2016. … But while Latinos are no doubt an important persuasion target for the GOP, they may not be the minority group most […] Read more »
Is Scott Walker’s Crossover Appeal Real? Turnout Data Raises Questions
A major part of Republican Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s appeal, he reminds supporters in every stump speech, is his proven ability to win the governor’s mansion in a highly-contested, Democratic-leaning state. But with Mr. Walker set to launch his presidential candidacy on Monday, a closer look at the numbers shows […] Read more »
How black voters could determine the 2016 election
… Democrats hope that high turnout rates among African Americans will be “sticky,” where voters motivated to cast ballots for Obama will transition into habitual voters in future years. But Democrats’ appeal to black voters could also matter a great deal in how much black turnout dips. Clinton is popular […] Read more »