The results of recent national elections in the United States have followed a clear pattern: Democrats have dominated presidential elections while Republicans have dominated congressional and especially House elections. … Our analysis indicates that the recent Republican “lock” on the House of Representatives is best explained by the inefficient distribution […] Read more »
Republican states are getting more partisan. Democratic states, not so much.
… One of our favorite metrics gauges partisanship in a state’s presidential voting by comparing it to the national vote margin. … If we take the average margin by which each state voted more Republican or more Democratic over the last 100 years, we get the chart below. … There’s […] Read more »
The Mystery of the Missing Evangelicals
Republicans haven’t won the presidency for two cycles now — and, for many party faithful, a perceived lack of support among evangelical voters is to blame. … The missing evangelical vote has been cited as a key factor by 2016 GOP hopefuls such as Sen. Ted Cruz and former tech […] Read more »
Are Voters Drifting Away?
… The total votes cast in the 2012 presidential election were down by more than 2 million from four years earlier, while the midterm vote last fall for the House of Representatives (the only office contested in all 50 states in a midterm election) dropped by more than 8.5 million […] Read more »
Ted Cruz Says Obama Won Because Evangelicals Stayed Home. Is That True?
Texas Senator Ted Cruz gave his audience at Liberty University on Monday one concrete-sounding reason why he could win the presidency. Too many evangelical Christians, he said, were “staying home” and handing presidential elections to Democrats. … This isn’t just one senator’s theory. The fear that evangelical voters are staying […] Read more »
Making Voting Harder Is a Time-Honored American Tradition
… People too often suggest that the nation’s low voter turnout signals a character flaw among Americans, that they somehow do not care enough about politics or are simply irresponsible. But that’s not why voter turnout is relatively low in the United States. The cause is pretty simple—ours is one […] Read more »