Racism motivated Trump voters more than authoritarianism

During the 2016 presidential campaign, many observers wondered exactly what motivated voters most: Was it income? Authoritarianism? Racial attitudes? Let the analyses begin. Last week, the widely respected 2016 American National Election Study was released, sending political scientists into a flurry of data modeling and chart making. … Below, I’ll […] Read more »

Special elections and the Trump Vote

Special elections for the Kansas 4th and Georgia 6th Congressional districts have drawn tremendous attention as harbingers of Republican and Democratic fortunes under President Trump. … A fundamental problem with focusing on these congressional seats is their small numbers which makes comparison and generalization to other districts difficult. We address […] Read more »

Forget Kansas. This chart shows why Republicans need to worry about 2018

Political Washington is in the midst of a heated debate over what — if anything — the somewhat-closer-than-expected special election in Kansas on Tuesday means for next November’s midterm elections. No matter where you come down on that question — I think there were clear warning signs for Republicans in […] Read more »

Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index

The Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 20th anniversary edition of the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for all 50 states and 435 Congressional districts in the country, compiled especially for the Report by POLIDATA®. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each district performs at the […] Read more »