Donald J. Trump’s low approval ratings and the palpable enthusiasm of progressives nationwide have Democrats dreaming of a big win in next year’s midterm elections. But to pull that off, they’ll need to overcome one of their biggest challenges of the last decade: low turnout in off-year contests. CONT. Nate […] Read more »
A 2016 Review: Turnout Wasn’t the Driver of Clinton’s Defeat
In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout. Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected. To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was […] Read more »
Another Look Back at 2016: Comparing the exit poll and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study
On election night in November, exit polls provided the first insight into how different demographic groups voted. But months later, other richer data sets are being released, and they provide researchers with new information about the election and the voters that participated in it. One such tool is the Cooperative […] Read more »
Voting for the Five Percent
“Why don’t working class voters vote their economic interests?” has been a perennial question for generations of academics. (One might also ask why full professors don’t vote their interests–for tax-cutting conservatives.) Part of the problem in addressing the question is knowing whether the premise is correct. When unemployed coal miners […] Read more »
5 Numbers That Say a Lot About the Election
Turnout in the 2016 presidential election, initially characterized as low, actually exceeded that of the 2012 race in which President Barack Obama won re-election. … And unsurprisingly, states that made it easier to register and vote usually experienced significantly higher turnout than states that did not. Those findings, and a […] Read more »
Purple America Has All But Disappeared
President Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton was among the narrowest in history, and the country is deeply split on his job performance so far. But if you feel like you hardly know anyone who disagrees with you about Trump, you’re not alone: Chances are the election was a landslide in […] Read more »