President Trump has just issued the executive order announcing the creation of his “voting fraud” commission to be chaired by Vice President Pence. Here are my own initial thoughts. 1. Title. This will be the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity. Election integrity is the principal dimension over which Democrats […] Read more »
Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.
Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to […] Read more »
Pollsters Find ‘At Best Mixed Evidence’ Comey Letter Swayed Election
FBI Director James Comey said this week that he is “mildly nauseous” at the idea that the FBI may have swayed the presidential election results. A new report may ease that nausea, if only a little. “We would conclude there is at best mixed evidence to suggest that the FBI […] Read more »
Can the Democrats Convince Millennials to Vote in 2018?
President Trump’s historically low approval ratings provide Democrats legitimate reasons for optimism about their prospects in the 2018 elections, especially in the House. But that confidence rests on a contradiction: Minorities and Millennials, the groups most alienated from Trump, are traditionally the constituencies least likely to vote in midterm elections. […] Read more »
As First 100 Days Nears, President Trump Approval Rating at 32% with Young
As the first 100 days of the administration nears, 32% of 18 to 29 year old Americans approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance overall, according to a new national poll by Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics (IOP). CONT. Institute of Politics, Harvard Read more »
Big Turnout for Ossoff Surpassed Recent Democratic Benchmarks
Jon Ossoff benefited from an unusually strong turnout in the first round of voting in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District last week, surpassing all recent benchmarks for Democratic turnout in an off-year election, according to an Upshot analysis of newly released voting data. … The election in Georgia’s Sixth is only […] Read more »