It’s a busy time of year, so we’ll keep this relatively short. But I wanted to echo and underscore a point made by FiveThirtyEight contributor Nathaniel Rakich in his article on Tuesday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. One reason that the results are especially scary for Republicans — […] Read more »
The Missing Obama Millions
Much of the political commentary since the presidential election has focused on two groups of party switchers: those who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016 and those who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump voters who previously voted for […] Read more »
About That Blue Wave …
The prevailing wisdom suggests that there will be a Democratic wave election in 2018. In a manner that suggests that little was learned from the 2016 primary or general elections, pundits and analysts seem so committed to this narrative that they promote it even when the data point in the […] Read more »
Partisans Divide over Election Hacking
A recent survey of 2,000 adults shows that Americans have become more concerned about election hacking than they were in 2016, and that a partisan divide has widened over these concerns. … Back in November 2016, 17% of respondents thought computer hacking in elections was a major problem nationwide, while […] Read more »
The States Where Democrats Are Overperforming Most — And Least — In Special Elections
… Special election results so far this cycle are among the clearest portents of a Democratic wave in November. Democrats are beating their usual percentages of the vote not only in special federal elections (i.e., for the U.S. Senate and House), but also in special state legislative elections. … But […] Read more »
How Much Can Primaries Predict the General Election?
The 2018 elections formally begin with the Texas primary on Tuesday, and early voting tallies are already being interpreted as yet another sign of Democratic strength heading into the midterms. … In terms of this year’s midterm elections, there are two ways to look at the primaries: at the national […] Read more »