… This post offers a quick rundown of the data in PA-18 and speculates about the consequences for Republicans in November. How did Lamb win? What does that mean for the 2018 midterms? First, the obvious. Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional district is ruby red — or so we thought. Donald Trump […] Read more »
The Modern History of Special Election Swing
Relative to the 2016 presidential election result there, the PA-18 special had a large swing in the Democratic direction. Looking at the two-party vote, Trump won the district by 20.3 points in 2016 while losing the national popular vote by 2.2 percentage points to Hillary Clinton, meaning the district’s lean […] Read more »
What the Pennsylvania special election tells us about the Democratic turnout surge
… Lamb’s apparent victory over Republican Rick Saccone the morning after Election Day runs in the hundreds of votes in a contest where more than 220,000 people cast ballots. In the 2016 presidential contest (according to Daily Kos’s invaluable tallies of presidential votes by legislative districts), more than 370,000 votes […] Read more »
The GOP Should Be Freaking Out, Pennsylvania Edition
Democrat Conor Lamb appears to be the winner of Tuesday’s special U.S. House election in a district that voted for President Trump by 20 percentage points. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses what the results in Pennsylvania’s 18th District mean for Republicans in the 2018 midterms. Spoiler: Not great, Bob! […] Read more »
PA-18 Result Is Latest Blow to GOP Odds of Holding the House
Democrat Conor Lamb’s near-certain win in a western Pennsylvania district President Trump carried by 20 points brings his party one seat closer to the 24 they need to pick up for a majority, but it’s another broad sign of danger for House Republicans. CONT. David Wasserman, Cook Political Report Read more »
Conor Lamb Chips Away at Trump’s Coalition
The Republicans’ last sea wall against a Democratic wave in November visibly cracked, but did not entirely crumble, in Tuesday’s special election for a House seat in Pennsylvania. For all of the gains Democrats have posted in elections held since Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, until this week they had […] Read more »