Equality Is on the Ballot: The Gender Gap Becomes a Chasm

In the past four years, Americans have experienced an endless series of large-scale events and shocks to our political system. … These cataclysmic events have shaped voter attitudes and preferences. In each of these cases, women appear to have reacted more quickly and more negatively to Trump than men have. […] Read more »

Why Biden ties with Trump in Florida, but leads in Pennsylvania

… Over the next few months, the difference between national- and state-level polls and the differences between specific states is likely to become more pronounced as voters turn their attention to the campaign and make final decisions about the two major presidential candidates. This week new NBC News/Marist polls of […] Read more »

CBS News Battleground Tracker: National, Wisconsin contests steady amid protests; more think Biden trying to calm situation

The presidential horse race remains unchanged by recent protests — Joe Biden still leads President Trump by the same margins nationally and in the battleground state of Wisconsin. Here’s why: though neither candidate gets rave reviews for what they’ve said about the demonstrations, Biden is seen by more as trying […] Read more »

Is Kenosha a Warning for the Biden Campaign?

On Wednesday night I remotely conducted two focus groups, one in North Carolina and one in Arizona. The demographics of the groups were the same. Both consisted of 2016 Trump voters. Both were composed of six white, college-educated women (those prized suburban women you hear so much about). And both […] Read more »

Can the Republican Convention turn things around for Trump?

As the Republican National Convention opens this week, President Donald Trump is in a tough position. … There isn’t much doubt that if the election were held today Trump would lose and might well take down the Republican Senate with him. So, all eyes will be on the Republicans’ convention […] Read more »

The flaw in Trump’s suburban strategy

Give President Trump this much: He has finally realized that the 2020 election will be lost and won in the suburbs. The question is whether his realization comes too late. In recent weeks, Trump claimed that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wants to “abolish the suburbs,” tweeted that he would […] Read more »