There’s not much that the campaigns of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney agree upon these days, except for this: The 2012 presidential election remains to be won or lost in the next 16 days because neither side has been able to close the deal with voters. … Few voters are […] Read more »
Google’s Crystal Ball
… My research suggests that by comparing Google search rates for voting information so far this year with search rates on comparable dates from previous elections, we might already be able to get a pretty good idea of the composition of the 2012 electorate. Despite the ubiquity of Google searching, […] Read more »
After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida?
… Florida has been polled so densely that the overall trend has become clear: Mr. Romney has made larger-than-average gains in the state since the Denver debate, and has now become a definitive favorite there. … Mr. Romney’s gains in Florida call into question how vigorously the campaigns should be […] Read more »
How we misread the numbers that dominate our politics
… In politics and beyond, we often use numbers to validate our intuitions and to measure the vagaries of life, yet we know that these numbers are often imprecise. And perhaps more than any prior election, this year’s race has shown how easily numbers can be abused, exploited or misconstrued. The […] Read more »
Ranking The Battleground States
With the national polls deadlocked, nine battleground states appear poised to determine the next president. … So what battleground states are best for Romney or Obama? Several states are pretty tough to distinguish and I’ll probably flip on a few of these by Election Day, but here are the nine […] Read more »
Obama closing on progress or future
With the election campaign reaching the eve of the last debate, President Obama has talked extensively about his future plans in the very successful second debate, and has aired an ad narrated by Morgan Freeman, talking about progress made in the last four years and concluding, “The last thing we […] Read more »