The Romney-Ryan proposal to reshape Medicare by giving future beneficiaries fixed amounts of money to buy health coverage is deeply unpopular in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin, according to new polls that found that more likely voters in each state trust President Obama to handle Medicare. [cont.] Michael Cooper and Dalia […] Read more »
Candidate Support Typically Up Five Points After Convention
U.S. presidential candidates historically have seen a median increase of five percentage points in their support in preference polls among registered voters after their party’s nominating convention. The average is slightly higher, six points, due to the record 16-point increase for Bill Clinton after the 1992 Democratic convention. [cont.] Jeffrey […] Read more »
The Conventions: How Big a Bounce?
… Once an actual mechanism for selecting a party’s presidential nominee, party conventions now serve as scripted infomercials for the parties and their candidates. The only drama comes in seeing whether one of the parties makes a major mistake or in trying to quantify the convention’s effect. Hence, we measure […] Read more »
How the Ryan Pick Fits in With VP History
… Every vice-presidential selection is different. The selector and his inner circle always differs, as does the pool of possible candidates and the context in which the choice is made. Nonetheless, Romney’s selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) illustrates that the process involves recurring patterns as well as variation, predictability […] Read more »
The Lost Decade of the Middle Class
As the 2012 presidential candidates prepare their closing arguments to America’s middle class, they are courting a group that has endured a lost decade for economic well-being. Since 2000, the middle class has shrunk in size, fallen backward in income and wealth, and shed some—but by no means all—of its […] Read more »
Obama leads big with Latinos, but enthusiasm still lags
President Barack Obama continues to lead presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney by wide margins with Latinos, according to the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Telemundo poll. Hispanics, the largest-growing segment of the U.S. population over the past decade, said they preferred Obama over Romney in the presidential race, 63 to 28 […] Read more »