Democracy Corps conducted a national web survey among 2,770 registered voters from Sept. 9-15, 2022. The data include a base sample of 1,270 registered voters, with large oversamples of 500 Black voters, 500 Hispanic voters, and 500 AAPI voters. The oversample data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, […] Read more »
DeSantis’ migrant flights point toward an ominous future of red and blue conflict
The spreading push from Republican governors to relocate undocumented immigrants into blue enclaves marks a new escalation of the red state drive to seize control of national policy from below, not only on immigration but on a broad array of domestic policies. … Taken together, all of these pieces – […] Read more »
Midterms 2022: April seems like ancient history
Less than six months ago — April, to be specific — Democrats were wringing their hands about the party’s prospects in November and Republicans were counting their chickens before their midterm eggs had hatched. … Long-term historical trends, combined with Biden’s standing in national polls, the enthusiasm gap and the […] Read more »
Democratic midterm message outperforms GOP’s message, NBC News poll finds
Beyond congressional preference, President Biden’s job rating and how the two parties fare on key issues, the new NBC News poll also tested the main Democratic vs. Republican midterm messages. And the poll found more voters preferring the Democratic message over the GOP message — without using either Biden’s name, […] Read more »
This little-known election predictor should worry Democrats
As early voting begins around the country, every political data point would appear to marginally favor the Democrats. Polls suggest they lead ever so slightly in key Senate races and in national House polls. Their candidates are raking in cash, while Republicans struggle financially. And in special elections following the […] Read more »
Are the Polls Giving Dems False Hope Again?
… Polling is the lifeblood of politics. It drives press coverage and campaign decision-making. But what if polling is fundamentally broken? What if we are viewing politics through a fun house mirror? … Is the recent burst of Democratic optimism another case of inaccurate poll-fueled naivete? No. While polls may […] Read more »