Last month it seemed that Democrats might ride a giant tsunami to control of the House and Senate. Now, some are wondering whether there’s a Democratic wave at all. … The question isn’t really whether Republican standing has improved recently. It has. The question is whether anyone should care: Is […] Read more »
The Districts That Will Determine the Next House Majority
We’ve previously described the Democrats’ odds of winning a House majority in November as roughly 50-50, and that’s where we remain. Democrats benefit from the usual presidential party midterm drag, President Trump’s lackluster approval ratings, and a flood of candidates. Republicans benefit from the overall House map and the presence […] Read more »
Why don’t Trump voters feel betrayed? Because they’re getting what they wanted.
Why doesn’t President Trump’s base feel betrayed yet, as so many observers think it should? Pundits have argued that they would feel alienated by his State of the Union address, his firing of Stephen K. Bannon and his trip to Davos to mingle with the global elite. Our research suggests […] Read more »
Better poll sampling would have cast more doubt on the potential for Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 election
… In a perfect world, polls sample from the population of voters, who would state their political preference perfectly clearly and then vote accordingly. However, results from small random samples can be quite unreliable due to extremely narrow electoral margins. To calculate the probability of winning the 2016 US presidential […] Read more »
Party switching – the Case for Racial Resentment
… If racial animus has the power to draw those with a high propensity of racial resentment into the Republican tent, can it then function as a wedge-issue, potentially alienating traditionally Republican voters from Republican candidates? Tests of this hypothesis are difficult, mostly because Big-N-data on resentment that would permit […] Read more »
A ‘Blue’ Florida? There Are No Quick Demographic Fixes for Democrats
Democrats could be forgiven for dreaming about a “blue” Florida. It is diversifying as fast as Texas or Arizona, and the demographic composition of its electorate may be poised to shift even faster than anticipated. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »