In a “60 Minutes” interview Sunday night, Stormy Daniels described the affair she says she had with Donald Trump before he was president. Daniels said she was threatened with physical violence if she went public with the story. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates how the media, and FiveThirtyEight in […] Read more »
Suburban voters angry with Trump threaten GOP’s grip on House
… If Republicans want to hold onto the House, they will have to compete in communities that had little to do with the working-class regions that sent Trump to the White House in 2016: affluent, white-collar suburbs of Democratic cities. Many of the most competitive House seats this year are […] Read more »
To Reclaim the House, Democrats Need to Flip 24 G.O.P. Seats. 25 Are in Clinton Territory.
Democrats hope to ride a wave of liberal enthusiasm and anti-Trump sentiment to a House majority in the midterm elections in November. All 435 House seats are up for grabs, but only about 48 seats are considered competitive (rated tossup or leaning toward one party), based on an average of […] Read more »
America’s Warped Elections
Many Democratic voters and activists are giddy about their party’s chances of retaking the House in 2018. … But a big reality check is in order. Even the strongest blue wave may crash up against a powerful structural force in American politics: extreme gerrymandering. Pending court cases, including one scheduled […] Read more »
After 20 years, data show dramatic changes in party alignment
In 2018, it’s commonplace to say that the Democratic and Republican parties represent two different Americas. But a new set of data this week shows some of the most significant gaps between the two major parties are growing wider. The study of political partisanship from the Pew Research Center compares […] Read more »
Assessing Recent Partisanship Trends among Millennial Men and Women
Pew Research recently released 2017 data on partisanship among several demographic subgroups that it’s been tracking for decades. Trends in millennial party affiliation by gender–men and women born between 1981 and 1996–have especially gained attention. According to the Pew data, while partisanship among millennial men has been very stable in […] Read more »