… The raw, undefined brand of populism that Trump rode into office is now hardening into a clearer set of policies in his second year, remaking the Republican Party and the country on issues ranging from trade and immigration to spending and entitlement programs. Even amid persistent unpopularity and the […] Read more »
A Creeping Sense of Doom for Republicans
In the wake of the GOP’s House special-election loss in Pennsylvania and amid President Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior, it’s really hard to come up with good news for Republicans. In my meetings with GOP strategists, there is a sense of doom and resignation. On and off the Hill, Republicans are […] Read more »
Exit Stage Left or Right: Midterm Retirements and Open Seats in the House From 1974 to 2018
In the aftermath of now-Rep. Conor Lamb’s (D) special election victory on March 13, a constant refrain has been the stated fear among Republicans that the result would precipitate more retirements among GOP members in the U.S. House. As the Crystal Ball has noted in the past, open seats held […] Read more »
Deja Vu All Over Again. Health Care Takes Center Stage in 2018 Campaigns
There’s always something of a disconnect between what Washington, DC is obsessed about and what the rest of the country is worried about. In DC, of course, the story is Robert Mueller, Russia and White House chaos. Out in congressional races, however, Democratic candidates aren’t talking about any of those […] Read more »
Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats
Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November. Just as important, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists also agree that an electoral wave has already […] Read more »
Has Trump Already Sealed the GOP’s Fate in 2018?
Every time Donald Trump breaks a window, congressional Republicans obediently sweep up the glass. That’s become one of the most predictable patterns of his turbulent presidency—and a defining dynamic of the approaching midterm elections. Each time they overtly defend his behavior, or implicitly excuse him by failing to object, they […] Read more »