… The swing of Obama voters to Mr. Trump proved a decisive factor in the 2016 presidential election. Of the more than 650 counties that chose Mr. Obama twice, about a third flipped to Mr. Trump. Many were in states critical to Mr. Trump’s win, like Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and […] Read more »
Have Special Elections Warped Our Sense of the Midterms?
The Republican Debbie Lesko’s shockingly close margin of victory in a recent special election in Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District — she won by five percentage points where Donald Trump won by over 20 — again raises the prospect of a blue wave in the midterms. It is true that Republicans […] Read more »
New message platform for 2018’s key battlegrounds: Report from phone survey & web-panel in the 12-state battleground
Democrats sit at the edge of a landslide repudiation of President Trump and Republicans – in the Congress and states where they govern – in November. This is according to the first of three waves of a phone survey (conducted mostly on cell-phones) of registered voters and a coordinated on-going […] Read more »
Trump Viewed Less Negatively on Issues, but Most Americans Are Critical of His Conduct
A majority of Americans find little or no common ground with Donald Trump on issues, but the share who say they agree with him on many or all issues has risen since last August. The public’s assessment of Trump’s conduct as president is little changed over the past nine months, […] Read more »
House: Democrats Risk Disaster in California’s Top Two Primaries
… Democrats’ path to a majority depends on California more than any other state: they have excellent chances in seven GOP seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, and a few more could be long shots in a wave. But in at least four districts, Democratic over-enthusiasm has produced crowded […] Read more »
Americans Are Telling Both Parties — ‘Show Me the Money’
“It sounds strange to me to say this about the Republicans, but they’re helping with even the small things. They’re taking less out of my paycheck. I notice that.” So said Terry Hood, a young, African-American, Clinton voter in a recent Reuters interview about why millennials are moving away from […] Read more »