These midterm elections are hard to game out. That’s because there are a lot of factors that could cancel each other out, and there is no single issue that appears to be breaking through. “Frankly, it is about volatility,” said a Republican operative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Polls, Polls, and More Polls
The Marist Poll has just released comprehensive data both nationally and in the upper Midwest. In this edition of Poll Hub, the team provides a detailed analysis of the electoral climate. In the latest NBC News/Marist Poll numbers of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is upside […] Read more »
Disillusioned GOP moderates
Democracy Corps just completed focus groups with key segments of the Republican Party. They confirm very clearly that Donald Trump riling up his Tea Party and Evangelical base both fuels the Democratic resistance and pushes away many in the GOP. Trump’s base strategy is especially disillusioning for the GOP moderates […] Read more »
Precinct Data Shows Rich, White Neighborhoods Flipping Democratic in 2016. Will It Last?
Republicans have been the party of the rich and Democrats the party of the poor for about as long as political scientists have collected data on American elections. That might not be quite so true anymore, at least among white voters. Hillary Clinton won the nation’s richest and most exclusive […] Read more »
Can Republicans Bridge the Gender Gap?
One of the bigger challenges for Republican congressional candidates this year, is to win over women voters who don’t like President Trump. And, the number of women who don’t like Trump, especially those who live in battleground suburban districts is … huge. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds […] Read more »
The Bottom Line in Republicans’ 42 Open Seats
With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930. The retirements of Speaker Paul Ryan (WI-01), as well as powerful committee chairs like Reps. Ed Royce (CA-39) and Rodney Frelinghuysen […] Read more »