The Republicans’ under-performance in the midterm elections has been described a lot of different ways — a failure, a rebuke, a mistake, etc. — but rarely as a price. That is, however, exactly what happened. Republicans took a hit at the polls because that’s the price to pay for a […] Read more »
Georgia’s Runoff is the Opening Battle of the 2024 Senate Cycle
Key Points• The looming Georgia Senate runoff is both the final race of 2022 and the first race of 2024, a Senate cycle in which Democrats are playing a lot of defense.• The Democrats could run the Senate more smoothly if they can get a “real” majority of 51.• But […] Read more »
Republicans prefer Ron DeSantis to Donald Trump as their 2024 presidential nominee
Nowhere is the impact of the Republican Party’s election underperformance more apparent than in changes in how Republicans view former President Donald Trump, who announced his 2024 candidacy Tuesday, after the close of the latest Economist/YouGov Poll. Before the election, 60% of Republicans wanted Trump to run again in 2024. […] Read more »
Why no red wave?
History said there should be a red wave. After all, on average, in the 19 midterms between the end of World War II and this one, the White House party lost 27 House seats, and four in the Senate. And these were not average times. The president’s approval rating was […] Read more »
Focus Group Report: Heading into Midterms, Democrats Were Motivated by Republican Attacks on Rights and Democracy
On October 20, 2022, GBAO conducted three focus groups online with Democratic and Independent voters who varied across demographics—age, education, and race. Key takeaways• Democrats are acutely worried about abortion, extremist Republicans, and political division.• Some see economic improvements, while others feel pessimistic.• Discussing the “middle class” further reveals pessimism […] Read more »
The Red Wave Didn’t Just Vanish
On Election Day, a small but crucial percentage of Republican voters deserted their party, casting ballots for Democratic nominees in several elections that featured Trump-backed candidates at the top of the ticket. These Trump-driven defections wrought havoc on Republican ranks. At the extreme, a once-strong Republican Party in Michigan was […] Read more »