… In the final days of the midterm campaign, Trump and other Republicans are focusing their closing arguments on cultural confrontations, from immigration to the bitter confirmation fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. … GOP candidates appear to have lost faith that they can win the argument with voters […] Read more »
Democrats Match or Exceed Republicans on Turnout Indicators
In a departure from Republicans’ usual lead on midterm turnout indicators, Democrats appear to be on par with or possibly ahead of Republicans in eagerness and intent to vote this year. CONT. Lydia Saad, Gallup Read more »
Where things stand less than a week out
We have great news for everyone. In just six days, the 2020 presidential campaign will begin! (No, we’re really not kidding.) But before then, we have the small matter of the 2018 midterm to settle. We’re still agonizing over our final picks in the closest House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. […] Read more »
How Republicans could hold the House
In 2018, will the story be about turnout? Probably not. The empirical fact is that turnout does not display a systematic bias in American national elections, despite the typically lower turnout rate of Democratic partisans and the greater effort by Democratic campaigns to get out the vote. Two more powerful […] Read more »
The Great Center-Right Delusion
What’s driving American politics off a cliff? Racial hatred and the cynicism of politicians willing to exploit it play a central role. But there are other factors. And an opinion piece by Hertel-Fernandez, Mildenberger, and Stokes in today’s Times (which is actually social science, not opinion!) seems to confirm something […] Read more »
On #MeToo, Americans More Divided By Party Than Gender
One year after the #MeToo movement took off, new NPR-Ipsos polls show the nation deeply divided on sexual assault and harassment, with fissures running more along party lines than gender. CONT. Tovia Smith, NPR News Read more »