In 2018, will the story be about turnout?
Probably not. The empirical fact is that turnout does not display a systematic bias in American national elections, despite the typically lower turnout rate of Democratic partisans and the greater effort by Democratic campaigns to get out the vote. Two more powerful influences are: (1) the incumbent president’s job approval and (2) how many members of Congress are holding seats for which they are a bad “fit.”
So what do those factors portend for 2018? CONT.
John R. Petrocik & Daron R. Shaw, Sabato’s Crystal Ball