… It turns out that Trump does not walk on political water. He does not defy political gravity. This is very bad news for him heading into the 2020 campaign. Trump was elected President with the worst favorable rating ever. This led many to speculate that traditional measures of gauging […] Read more »
In suburban South, Democrats break into Republican strongholds
Democrats may call Tuesday’s election a wave, but look closer and you’ll see the latest evidence of a longer-term shift in the suburban vote away from the Republican Party. This metropolitan realignment was so powerful this year that its impacts were felt in places that until now had largely been […] Read more »
For Democrats, a midterm election that keeps on giving
… This was always an election that would test the strength of the economy, which favored the president’s party, vs. the president’s low approval ratings, which, along with the record of past midterm elections, pointed to Democratic gains. In the end, history and presidential approval combined to give Democrats control […] Read more »
2018: What really happened?
… No, it’s not regression to the mean, it’s not a statistical artifact. The shift from 2016 to 2018—the Democrats gaining strength in Republican strongholds—is real. And it can have implications for statewide and presidential elections as well. This is also consistent with results we saw in various special elections […] Read more »
These 5 charts explain who voted how in the 2018 midterm election
The 2018 midterm election dramatically shifted the balance of power in the House of Representatives, from Republican to Democratic control. Many expected that, given President Trump’s relatively low approval rating. Historically, that had meant the president’s party would lose many House races. Pre-election polling largely confirmed the likely Democratic takeover. […] Read more »
Blue waves and white bubbles: What America’s growing diversity portends for the GOP
In many ways, two Americas voted Tuesday: One that is large, white, and shrinking; another that’s far smaller, more racially, ethnically and culturally diverse -– and growing inexorably. Look back a generation: 91 percent of voters in 1990 were white. Tuesday, 72 percent were white, the fewest on record for […] Read more »