America’s polarized citizenry took a break from intense partisan bickering to produce the highest off-year turnout in a midterm election in 50 years on Nov. 6. Is it possible that all that effort actually nudged us forward a bit? Because the votes were counted so slowly across the country, we […] Read more »
Trump’s 2016 Showing Was the Most Important Factor in 2018 House Races
Not long after the November 2017 elections, I had lunch with David Petts, a Democratic pollster and longtime veteran of congressional campaigns. He remarked that the Republican gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey performed within one to four points of President Trump in every congressional district in the state. […] Read more »
As Long as Trump Is President, Blue Texas Could Actually Happen
Enthusiastic Democrats can often be heard talking about how Texas is turning purple and maybe even blue. Professional strategists have mostly scoffed at this idea — after all, Donald Trump won Texas by more than 800,000 votes in 2016. But if President Trump decides to seek a second term — […] Read more »
Weak Spots in Democrats’ Strong Midterm Results Point to Challenges in 2020
Democrats had a great showing in the 2018 midterm elections. But even in such a strong year, they sometimes struggled to match their traditional support in electorally significant areas — with serious implications for 2020. Their triumph was a somewhat narrow one, concentrated in well-educated, affluent communities. Over all, the […] Read more »
2018 rewrote the main rule of US politics
So much for the old rule that all politics is local. … In virtually every state, Democrats last Tuesday displayed a clear advantage in densely populated, culturally and racially diverse white-collar metropolitan areas, while Republicans relied on elevated margins in the preponderantly white, religiously traditional, smaller places beyond them. In […] Read more »
The ‘invisible primary’ comes into view
The first rule of running for president is, do not talk about running for president — at least not until the last election is over. … But now, the 2020 omerta has finally lifted, setting off a rush of activity from presidential hopefuls as they try to get the jump […] Read more »