… Mr. Trump’s attacks on Mr. Biden have defied the pleadings of his own aides, who think almost any other candidate would be easier to defeat, and left Republicans puzzled while delighting Biden supporters. … A recent survey of battleground states conducted for the Trump campaign by a leading Republican […] Read more »
How Democrats Who Beat Republicans Last Year Plan to Keep Their Seats
… Desperate to maintain their one perch of power in Washington, House Democrats are moving aggressively to defend their majority. Incumbents, under intense pressure from the party to begin their campaigns, raised a record $11.6 million in the first quarter of the year and are moving quickly to protect the […] Read more »
A Strategy Emerges to Counter House Democrats: Dare Them to Impeach
As the White House and Congress escalate their constitutional showdown, President Trump and his team are essentially trying to call what they see as the Democrats’ bluff. The message: Put up or shut up. Impeach or move on. Confident that there are not enough votes to remove him from office […] Read more »
What Happened To George W. Bush’s GOP?
The Bushes, and in many ways Texas, shaped the identity of the Republican Party across three decades. In a live taping of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast in Houston, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed since the end of President George W. Bush’s tenure. Houston Chronicle columnist […] Read more »
Notes on the State of the House
Let’s start here with a caveat: House generic ballot polling from a year and a half before a general election should not be treated as predictive. The 2020 House election depends on a lot of factors that remain unknowable, most importantly the tone-setting effect of the presidential race, which at […] Read more »
Two Years In: How Americans’ Views Have — and Have Not — Changed During Trump’s Presidency
More than two years ago, Donald Trump’s entry into American politics culminated with an unlikely Electoral College win and his inauguration as president. This Democracy Fund Voter Study Group brief gives an overview of how opinions have changed during this period and what voters are looking for in future candidates. […] Read more »