President Trump’s abysmal polling since the pandemic began is seriously jeopardizing down-ballot GOP fortunes. We may be approaching the point at which dozens of House Republicans will need to decide whether to cut the president loose and run on a “check and balance” message, offering voters insurance against congressional Democrats […] Read more »
Party Preferences Have Swung Sharply Toward Democrats
Since January, Americans’ party preferences have shifted dramatically in the Democratic Party’s direction. What had been a two-percentage-point Republican advantage in U.S. party identification and leaning has become an 11-point Democratic advantage, with more of that movement reflecting a loss in Republican identification and leaning (down eight points) than a […] Read more »
The Future Shape of the Senate
Key Points• The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to the Democrats.• What about […] Read more »
Democrats and Republicans see coronavirus differently
This weekend, President Donald Trump allowed the White House press corps to see him wearing a face mask for the first time. Trump, of course, has been hesitant to wear a mask, and he has retweeted criticism of former Vice President Joe Biden for doing so. The importance of Trump […] Read more »
Trump’s Exhausted Party: GOP Focus Group Report
Democracy Corps just completed our first focus groups of the 2020 election with Republicans and Republican defectors, and this year’s referendum on President Trump threatens to reach even deeper into the Republican Party than the 2018 blue wave. These focus groups provide our first window into the factions pulling off […] Read more »
The Electoral College: The Fringe of the Map Expands
Key Points• President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half.• With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states.• We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.• Our […] Read more »