A Top G.O.P. Pollster on Trump 2024, QAnon and What Republicans Really Want

… So what is it that the Republican Party, the real Republican Party, the Republican Party that loves Donald Trump and wants to see him run again, what does that Republican Party believe? What do they prioritize? What do they emphasize in politics? What do they think all this is […] Read more »

What will Trump loyalists’ sensed powerlessness mean for politics?

… Trump’s base is angry about government restrictions on their freedom and believe they are fighting to save the “American way of life” from cancel culture and Black Lives Matter’s violent attacks on police and white people. We conducted focus groups in March with Trump Loyalists in Georgia and Wisconsin […] Read more »

Trump Voters Want COVID Vaccine Information from Doctors, Not Politicians

When deciding whether to get a COVID vaccine, Republicans who voted for President Trump will be far more influenced by their doctors and family members than any politician, including Trump, according to a new national poll released today by the de Beaumont Foundation. When asked if they’d be more likely […] Read more »

The House: Unclear Lines, Clear Expectations

Key Points• Delays in the redistricting process mean that we won’t be releasing Crystal Ball House district ratings for the foreseeable future.• However, midterm history along with GOP advantages in redistricting make the Republicans clear, though not certain, favorites to win the House next year.• Recent midterm history helps illustrate […] Read more »

We See the Left. We See the Right. Can Anyone See the ‘Exhausted Majority’?

… Morris Fiorina, a political scientist at Stanford, argues in a series of essays and a book, “Unstable Majorities,” that it is the structure of the two-party system that prevents the center — the moderate majority of American voters — from asserting their dominion over national politics: Given multiple dimensions […] Read more »