Key Points• The Greater South used to be the key cog in Democratic House majorities; now it is the region that allows Republicans to win majorities.• Democrats’ dominance on the West Coast and Northeast have allowed them to win majorities even as they have fallen further behind in the Greater […] Read more »
How to make voting districts fair to voters, not parties
Representatives say the Pledge of Allegiance at the State Capitol in Austin. Texas is one of many states that redrew their political maps in 2021. Tamir Kalifa via Getty Images Linda Fowler, Dartmouth College and Chris Fowler, Penn State Should fairness to political parties be the standard for evaluating legislative […] Read more »
Less Than A Year Out: A Redistricting Update
Key Points• With some more populous states passing new district maps, the 2022 congressional landscape is getting a bit clearer.• In Texas and North Carolina, Republicans took contrasting approaches — they were relatively tame in the former and more aggressive in the latter — but should likely net seats out […] Read more »
An Excerpt from The Long Red Thread
… The Republican Revolution of 1994 represents a transitional point between more than a half century of Democratic dominance in the House and a more recent period that does not qualify as Republican “dominance” but is certainly more than just a slight political imbalance. In the years since 1994, Republicans […] Read more »
Introducing Our U.S. House Ratings
As we noted in the Crystal Ball last week, the congressional redistricting process is unfolding across the country, to the point where we now have a handful of states with finalized maps — meaning that, barring a successful lawsuit down the line, these states have their maps in place for […] Read more »
Notes on the State of Politics: California and Indiana
It is going to take a while to get the final results in the California gubernatorial recall. But we know enough to say that the race was not at all close, and that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) should not have any trouble winning a second term next year. So as […] Read more »