… American democracy is facing two distinct threats, which together represent the most serious challenge to the country’s governing ideals in decades. The first threat is acute: a growing movement inside one of the country’s two major parties — the Republican Party — to refuse to accept defeat in an […] Read more »
The Economic Pit and the Political Pendulum: Predicting Midterm Elections
We were given the following prompt in July 2022 and asked to write a response: “The Economy, Stupid: Accepted wisdom has it that it’s the economy that matters to voters. Will other issues matter in the upcoming midterm elections, or will it really be all about the economy?” In the […] Read more »
A hard 2020 lesson for the midterms: Our politics are calcified
… Voters are increasingly tied to their political loyalties and values. They have become less likely to change their basic political evaluations or vote for the other party’s candidate. This is not just polarization but calcification. And just as it does in the body, calcification produces rigidity in our politics […] Read more »
Democrats Buoyed by Abortion and Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Even as they struggle to persuade voters that they should be trusted on the economy, Democrats remain unexpectedly competitive in the battle for Congress as the sprint to November’s midterm election begins, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found. The surprising Democratic strength has been bolstered by falling gas […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: 65% say Trump was wrong to take documents
Over a month after the FBI search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home, majorities of voters think it was inappropriate for Trump to have removed sensitive documents from the White House and that the FBI acted appropriately. The FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago on August 8 as […] Read more »
Will abortion affect the midterm vote for candidates? Lessons from the ban gay marriage ballot initiatives
The recent electoral optimism among Democrats has many causes: gas prices are down, Biden’s legislative victories are up, and Republicans are nominating candidates from New Hampshire to Arizona who appear to be out of step with the voters. But the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a woman’s right to an […] Read more »