For most of the summer, President Biden and the Democrats had the political winds at their backs. They saw their poll numbers rise as gas prices fell, as the Supreme Court refocused voters on abortion, and as the Jan. 6 hearings and the investigation into Donald J. Trump’s handling of […] Read more »
Faith in American System Recovers After Summer Jan. 6 Hearings
The House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack heads into its final stages without showing much impact on overall public opinion. About 4 in 10 Americans feel former President Donald Trump was directly responsible for what happened at the U.S. Capitol that day, while 3 in 10 continue […] Read more »
Pennsylvania: Fetterman Leads Oz in U.S. Senate Race, Shapiro Outpaces Mastriano in Governor’s Race
In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman has a 10-point lead over Mehmet Oz among registered voters statewide. Fetterman’s lead narrows to 7 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote. In the governor’s race, Democrat Josh Shapiro is ahead of Republican Doug Mastriano […] Read more »
4 charts that show the GOP’s 2022 popularity gap
A month ago, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said out loud what many Republicans were undoubtedly feeling. Effectively, the message was: We’ve got a shot at a good 2022 midterm election, but some of these Trump candidates could screw it all up for us. At the time, there was […] Read more »
Why Stacey Abrams is a clear underdog in Georgia
The 2022 elections are, so far, shaping up to be better than Democrats had imagined. They’re now favored to hold the Senate, and they appear likely to keep their losses in the House below the historical midterm average for the party that controls the White House. They also seem to […] Read more »
Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest
The Republicans have a lead. But it keeps shrinking. While they’re still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Republicans were at 226 […] Read more »