Democrats’ path to victory in 2020 requires strong majorities in cities and minimizing losses in rural stretches, but it hinges on performance in the suburbs. … To better understand the dynamics in these decisive places, Third Way used data from the analytics firm Catalist to estimate how many people are […] Read more »
Fueled By Suburbs, Democrats Are Poised For Gains In Key States, Analysis Finds
A new report from the centrist Democratic group Third Way, and shared first with NPR, finds that Democrats are on track to win the suburbs in five of six key states they lost in the 2016 presidential election. The analysis — which is based on voter-file data from the progressive-aligned […] Read more »
Trailing badly in polls, Trump points to ‘hidden’ voters and the ‘silent majority’ as path to victory
Trailing badly in the polls and with just over 95 days until the election, President Trump is banking on a questionable phenomenon to defy conventional wisdom and win reelection: the “hidden” Trump voter. The president has repeatedly touted a “silent majority” of Americans he expects to show up en mass […] Read more »
Sorry, Republicans. The polls really are that bad.
Many Republicans are responding with disbelief to polls showing President Trump well behind former vice president Joe Biden nationally and in all the swing states. Some say the polls are undercounting Republicans, while others cite 2016 as evidence that the polls are just wrong. Sadly, neither explanation holds water. … […] Read more »
A lot could change in 100 days
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver doesn’t buy that President Trump’s fate is sealed. He breaks down the data on the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on Trump’s reelection chances. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Trump is behind in a state no Republican has won the presidency without in 96 years
… Trump hasn’t led in a single Florida poll since early March. The fact that the polls in Florida favor Biden should be one of the biggest warning signs yet for Trump’s fledgling campaign. Yes, we still have 100 days to go, and history does suggest that the gap in […] Read more »