The national political landscape has clearly and significantly shifted in Joe Biden’s favor since he emerged as the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee back in March just as the public health emergency was taking hold. … Based on public and private polling, where the campaigns are placing their strategic bets with […] Read more »
2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes
It’s hard to believe that the hole President Trump dug for himself could get deeper, but it has. A record and widening majority of Americans disapprove of the job he’s doing when it comes to handling the coronavirus pandemic; he gets poor scores on race relations; he’s seen a suburban […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Aug. 2
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist Read more »
Biden is eating into Trump’s Rust Belt base
… Trump won the 2016 election in large part because he was able to break through the big “blue” wall in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He did so on the backs of White voters, and in particular White voters without a college degree. This led to those infamous memes of […] Read more »
Trump must win North Carolina. He’s losing there.
Absentee ballots start getting mailed to North Carolina voters in just 33 days, and a new CBS News/YouGov poll reveals ominous news for President Donald Trump in the Tar Heel state. Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a narrow 48% to 44% advantage among likely voters. It’s the latest CNN […] Read more »
Democrats are stronger favorites in tight race for Senate control
… The Democrats’ chance of wresting control away from Republicans has increased over the last few months. They are clearer favorites to take back Congress’ upper chamber, though the race for Senate control is still well within the margin of error. To gain a majority of seats, Democrats need a […] Read more »