Key Points• With the first debate now in the books, we have close to 20 rating changes across the Electoral College, Senate, and House.• Joe Biden is now over 270 electoral votes in our ratings as we move several Midwestern states in his favor.• Changes in the battle for Congress […] Read more »
Trump’s Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous.
President Trump’s quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996. … At a […] Read more »
Electoral College Rating Changes: Ohio and Iowa Move to Toss Up
In mid-June, we moved both Iowa and Ohio from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. At the time, we noted that while the polls were looking shaky for Pres. Trump, they were also catching him at what could be his lowest point of the cycle. “We’ll know soon enough if this […] Read more »
State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms
Key Points• There is a strong relationship between the 2020 presidential polls in the states and the 2016 results.• This relationship makes sense given that there is an incumbent on the ballot. In these kinds of elections, we see a very high degree of consistency in the results at the […] Read more »
Trump Wants to Discredit the Election. This Nerd Could Stop Him.
The Fox Corporation these days reminds me a bit of America: The elites have lost control, and partisan noise drowns out almost everything. But there are pockets where traditionalists cling to fading norms. One of those pockets is a new office on the third floor of Fox’s headquarters on the […] Read more »
Why Biden would likely have a Democratic Senate if he wins
The pending Senate battle over the next Supreme Court nominee shows us how important winning Congress’ upper chamber is this fall. A president who doesn’t have the Senate backing him cannot fully use the power of the presidency to influence the government’s direction. 2020 could be shaping up to be […] Read more »