Key Points
• There is a strong relationship between the 2020 presidential polls in the states and the 2016 results.
• This relationship makes sense given that there is an incumbent on the ballot. In these kinds of elections, we see a very high degree of consistency in the results at the state level.
• There are enough competitive states for Donald Trump to come back and win, but Joe Biden is considerably closer to the magic number of 270 than Trump, based on the polls. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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