It’s now less than two weeks until California’s recall election, and the latest polling suggests good news for Gov. Gavin Newsom. Polls show that an increasing percentage of voters say they’re going to vote “no” on the recall. And while the polling average still suggests the possibility of the Democratic […] Read more »
Where Will Biden’s Approval Ratings Go From Here?
All presidents inevitably encounter serious challenges, when events and circumstances go badly, whether controllable by that president and administration or not, that can affect that president’s standings with the public and even trajectory of the balance of the administration. Whether the president is fairly placed or not is not terribly […] Read more »
Four ways to think about Abbott’s and DeSantis’s 2022 prospects
Even pre-pandemic, Republican Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida were obsessed with “own the libs” moves that at times broke with core democratic values, mostly notably DeSantis’s efforts to make it harder for felons to regain their voting rights. But covid-19 has shown the serious danger […] Read more »
Why the California recall is within the margin of error and what that means for Gavin Newsom
The idea that California voters might recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems like a Republican fantasy and nothing more at first glance. After all, Newsom won by 24 points in 2018 and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, took the state by 29 points last fall. Now though, Democrats are worried […] Read more »
To Predict Biden’s Political Fate, Keep an Eye on Independents
What is potentially so damaging for President Biden and Democrats isn’t so much the substance of the decision to pull out of Afghanistan. After all, any chance of the conflict turning out well ended about 15 years ago. It was the shambolic execution of it. The intelligence community, Pentagon officials, […] Read more »
How the political environment is moving toward Republicans
Republicans gained a seat in the Connecticut state Senate this week. They won a special election in a district that President Joe Biden won by more than 20 points in 2020. Any individual special election such as this one comes with its caveats, but the trend in special state elections […] Read more »