As promised in my last post on the September Model I’m be posting a rolling Electoral College forecast … based on past election results and October national and state-level trial-heat polls. As with the September model, these state-level forecasts were developed with Jay DeSart. … The results for today are: […] Read more »
Projection: Republicans Will Hold the House
While there will be major shifts in the House delegations of many states on Election Day, and while more than a handful of incumbents appear likely to lose, the total change in each party’s net total of House seats will probably not be large. That means it’s good to be […] Read more »
The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets
Tuesday featured what, on the surface, would seem to be a fairly neutral day of polling. … At the political betting market Intrade, however, traders seemed to have a much stronger opinion about the day’s news. Mr. Romney’s stock, which can be read as a forecast of the chance that […] Read more »
As goes February, so goes the nation
Back in February, when the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama will win re-election with 303 electoral votes, we wrote that “while campaigns and candidates matter, they don’t matter all that much. Despite the varying quality and positions of the campaigns and candidates over the last 10 presidential elections, variables […] Read more »
They Call The Election A Horse Race; It Has Real Bettors, Too
By this point in the campaign season, the presidential polls may have your head spinning. Romney’s up 7 points in one, Obama’s up 3 in another … and on any given day, a dozen other polls are swirling, each offering a different take. But there is a market out there […] Read more »
Electoral Precedent
The problem with statements like . . . xkcd.com Read more »