… Amid the many uncertainties of next Tuesday’s presidential election lies one sure thing: Many people will feel in their gut that they knew the result all along. … Most will also have a ready-made argument for why it was inevitable that Mitt Romney, or Barack Obama, won — displaying […] Read more »
Different Forecast, Same Result: More Political Science Models
… In my last post I discussed one such model – the one developed by Emory political scientist Drew Linzer and featured at his Votamatic website. … Today I want to discuss a second state-based forecast model created by political scientists Tom Holbrook and Jay DeSart. Their model is even […] Read more »
Nate Silver, Artist of Uncertainty
… One of the biggest problems we have in separating signal from noise is that when we look too hard for certainty that isn’t there, we often end up attracted to noise, either because it is more prominent or because it confirms what we would like to believe. This is […] Read more »
The Track Record of Pre-Election Polls (in 2 Graphs)
How trustworthy are this year’s presidential polls? On Monday, November 5, will they be able to tell us who is likely to win the election? We’ll know soon enough, but in the meantime the historical record provides some important context. This record suggests three things: [cont.] John Sides, George Washington […] Read more »
Here’s Johnny—the Campaign Oracle
In mid-September 1980, following the two presidential conventions, Ronald Reagan trailed President Jimmy Carter in national polls, 44% to 40%. At the time, I was head writer for Johnny Carson’s “Tonight Show.” … We got NBC’s props department to dust off an old applause meter. … When [Johnny] said, “Now how many […] Read more »
How True Drew? Linzer Still Sees Obama As A Heavy Favorite
Emory University political scientist Drew Linzer, who created and runs the Votamatic website, paid a visit to Middlebury College last Wednesday to discuss why, based on his forecast model, he believes President Obama is still the heavy favorite to win the presidential election. [cont.] Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College Read more »