As regular consumers of both mainstream and social media know, there is a vocal group of politically minded people who absolutely hate horse-race polling (i.e., polling about who is leading in election contests). They have varying reasons. Some think polls systemically underrepresent the viability of their favorite party or politicians. […] Read more »
Six Decades of Regional Change in House Elections
Key Points• The Greater South used to be the key cog in Democratic House majorities; now it is the region that allows Republicans to win majorities.• Democrats’ dominance on the West Coast and Northeast have allowed them to win majorities even as they have fallen further behind in the Greater […] Read more »
Democrats Shouldn’t Panic. They Should Go Into Shock.
The rise of inflation, supply chain shortages, a surge in illegal border crossings, the persistence of Covid, mayhem in Afghanistan and the uproar over “critical race theory” — all of these developments, individually and collectively, have taken their toll on President Biden and Democratic candidates, so much so that Democrats […] Read more »
History says Biden and Democrats probably won’t recover by the midterms
President Joe Biden’s approval rating is at its lowest point since he took office. His approval rating has slid into the low 40s this month. And while the President has plenty of time to recover before his potential reelection in 2024, history suggests that his chances of becoming popular and […] Read more »
Why Democrats May Have a Long Wait if They Lose Their Grip on Washington
Usually, it’s the party out of power that frets about whether it will ever win again. This time, it’s the party in control of government that’s staring into the political wilderness. Democrats now have a Washington trifecta — command of the White House and both chambers of Congress. If the […] Read more »
Journalists Are Hooked on Polls and They’ll Stay That Way
… To be a journalist is to be a soothsayer, especially for political journalists, who speculate on everything from who stands to win the next election to what the chances are that a bill might pass to what the president might do next. Pollsters and political journalists use poll data […] Read more »