… The innovations of moneyball in politics and the way the Obama campaign deployed data are real and important. But those innovations have not gone as far as the hype says they did. Can political campaigns use data to predict exactly how we’ll vote? Can they subtly manipulate our votes? […] Read more »
Forget 2014, poll finds worried Americans predict nation in downhill slide clear through 2050
Ask people to imagine American life in 2050, and you’ll get some dreary visions. Whether they foresee runaway technology or runaway government, rampant poverty or vanishing morality, a majority of Americans predict a future worse than today. CONT. Connie Cass, AP Read more »
14 For ‘14: Some Bold Predictions for the New Year
As we wrap up our publishing schedule for 2013, we looked into the Crystal Ball to offer some predictions for next year. While the picture is still a little hazy for the 2014 midterms, we’ve got some other prognostications related to the political year to come and some hints about […] Read more »
A model world
… Computer simulation, only a few decades old, is transforming scientific projects as mind-bending as plotting the evolution of the cosmos, and as mundane as predicting traffic snarl-ups. What should we make of this scientific nouvelle cuisine? While it is related to experiment, all the action is in silico — […] Read more »
Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile
The 2012 presidential election in the United States saw an increase in the popularity of poll aggregators, such as Drew Linzer at Votamatic, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight and Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium. … They proved that aggregating polls could be more useful than using a single poll to […] Read more »
How To Be A ‘Super Forecaster’
Experts and pundits’ predictions of the future aren’t particularly accurate, according to University of Pennsylvania professor Philip Tetlock. He tells host Rachel Martin that making accurate predictions might be a trainable skill. NPR News Read more »