Pity the political analysts who cover special elections. A sample size of one House of Representatives race makes for a challenging exercise in interpretation. Yet, depending on the result, the race can be spun as a negative referendum on the president or a confirmation of his policy decisions. Despite their […] Read more »
Why Democrats Are in Trouble in 2014
The 2014 midterm elections are just a little more than a year away, but the prognostications have been flying for months about who will win, why, and how. Everyone has a story to sell about which party will pick up seats, and which campaigns are poised to do well and […] Read more »
Omen or Not? What off-off year elections tell us about the future
We can all guess the final result in New Jersey this November, and at this point most observers are less certain about Virginia’s, although we currently rate Terry McAuliffe (D) as a small favorite over Ken Cuccinelli (R). … But the truly sure thing about the two gubernatorial contests set […] Read more »
Presidential Election Forecasting: Frontiers and Controversies
This roundtable discussion, “Presidential Election Forecasting: Frontiers and Controversies, ” held Aug. 8, 2013, featured five prominent scholars who discussed various aspects of forecasting — both substantive and methodological — and placed the “forecasting game” into the broader context of studying elections. The speakers were: Simon Jackman, of Stanford University; […] Read more »
Twitter doesn’t have pollsters running scared
Excuse the pun, but the polling world is all “atwitter” about a University of Indiana professor’s claim that the social media platform Twitter will “undermine the polling industry” and that analyzing social media conversations will put campaign pollsters “out of work.” … Pushback from the polling world has been swift […] Read more »
How To Win That Music Competition? Send A Video
… A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences explains why the judges liked Chia-Jung Tsay more when they could see her perform. The researcher who published the study: Chia-Jung Tsay. In addition to her music career, Tsay is also a psychologist at University College, London. […] Read more »