The American public anticipates that the coming half-century will be a period of profound scientific change, as inventions that were once confined to the realm of science fiction come into common usage. This is among the main findings of a new national survey by The Pew Research Center, which asked […] Read more »
Midterm 2014: Where Things Stand Now
Election Day 2014 is now almost exactly seven months away, which is both near and far. … So with the caveat that plenty can change, we know enough about the political environment, fundamentals, candidates and other factors that will impact 2014 to offer a new Crystal Ball feature this week: […] Read more »
The Limitations of Fundamentals-based Presidential Election Forecasting
U.S. presidential election forecasts are of widespread interest to political commentators, campaign strategists, and the public. We argue that most fundamentals-based political science forecasts overstate what historical political and economic factors can tell us about the likely outcome of a forthcoming presidential election. Existing approaches generally overlook uncertainty in coefficient […] Read more »
Generic Ballot Model Shows Senate Control at Tipping Point
… The main reason why Democrats are at risk of losing control of the Senate in November is not because of public discontent with the Affordable Care Act, continued weakness in the economy or President Obama’s mediocre approval ratings. All of these issues may have an impact on the Senate […] Read more »
Can Sports Teams Really Have Momentum?
ESPN commentators will often insist that such-and-such team has such-and-such “momentum,” so really, there’s not much of a question when it comes to tonight’s game. Behavioral economists have long attempted to figure out whether this clichéd concept that sports fans have long endeared themselves to can actually, statistically, be a […] Read more »
In Tokyo elections, Twitter reveals voter preferences in a way surveys do not
… In many elections, voters choose their candidate along party lines. But in the case of the Tokyo governor, issues are believed to be more important than the party. We want to understand which issues are important, and how these issues vary across Tokyo. The Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shinbun has […] Read more »