Nate Cohn, who covers polling for The Upshot/New York Times, joins us for a great discussion of their new forecasting model, LEO, and which party might win control of the U.S. Senate. CONT. Political Wire Read more »
The Political Media Still Fall for the Hot-Hand Fallacy
The most important lesson of the 2012 presidential campaign, in my view, was not that polling-based models are foolproof ways to assess the political environment, but instead that undisciplined ways of evaluating polls and political events can lead to flawed conclusions. On several occasions during the race, news media commentators […] Read more »
The GOP has either a 42% or 77% chance of retaking the Senate
… If you’ve been following elections in recent years, it’s probably been drilled into you that averages of polls are usually quite accurate near the end of the campaign. But the election is still 6 months away, and polling is infrequent in many races — which presents a problem for […] Read more »
An Indirect Path to Accuracy in Election Polling
Representative Charles Rangel of New York has a nine-point lead over his nearest primary challenger, in a new New York Times/NY1/Siena College poll of likely voters. … In addition to asking residents of the state’s 13th Congressional District which candidate they planned to vote for, the poll also asked them […] Read more »
New Election Model Machinery: A Look Under the Hood
John Sides, Ben Highton and Eric McGhee of The Monkey Cage have started Election Lab, a Senate forecasting model at The Washington Post. Their model gives Republicans more than an 80 percent chance of retaking the Senate; that’s much more than the 54 percent chance that Leo, The Upshot’s Senate […] Read more »
Remembering President Giuliani and President Brown
Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead over Jeb Bush, 53 percent to 41 percent, in a hypothetical 2016 matchup between the two, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll Wednesday. How much does that tell us about their relative likelihood of becoming president? Not much. Two years before an election, […] Read more »