Most forecasters predict that Republicans will pick up enough seats in the midterms to control the chamber. But Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Commission predicts the Democrats will hold on. NPR News Read more »
Does Forecasting an Election Change the Outcome?
There’s been a lot of digital ink spilled recently over the rise of election forecasting models. … I won’t get into the debate over whose model is better, or whether forecasts are bad or good for political science. Rather, I wanted to address an interesting question raised by Brian Rosenwald, a […] Read more »
Senate Update: Lots Of Polls But Little Change
Sunday morning brought a bonanza of new Senate polls. Marist College, on behalf of NBC News, released new surveys in Kansas, Iowa and North Carolina. YouGov released its latest round of polling in every Senate race in conjunction with CBS News and The New York Times. But the polling had […] Read more »
Senate Update: A Reality Check On The Polls And Our Forecast
… In the 2012 presidential election, there was a long stretch of the campaign when the national and state polls disagreed. State-level surveys showed President Obama in better shape than national polls. The state polls ended up being more accurate, but it’s always best to have a check on the […] Read more »
Finding the forecast
With control of the Senate hanging in the balance, all the drama appears to be in that body, with far less focus on the House, which is important in its own right as a test bed for the varieties of forecasts now widely available. History suggests Democrats will lose House […] Read more »
Republicans Hold the Advantage in Senate Races
With the outcome of up to 11 Senate seats plausibly in doubt, here is what we know—or at least can pretty easily assume. CONT. Charlie Cook Read more »