How would commentary on the midterm election look if economists, rather than Beltway pundits, were calling the race? You would read a lot less about personalities, gaffes and gossip, and a lot more about fundamentals like the state of the economy. And you would certainly get a more sophisticated reading […] Read more »
A consumer’s guide to the final weeks of Campaign 2014
For months, voters have been barraged by claims and counterclaims from Republicans and Democrats about the degree to which the landscape is shifting in the race for control of the Senate, which polls are correct and who has the best voter turnout operation. Get ready for more, and be wary […] Read more »
Too Close to Call
… The Senate projections among forecasters using different methodologies, including those of Silver and Wang, are beginning to converge, much as I suggested they would in my previous post on this topic. That convergence is making it increasingly clear that the battle for control of the Senate is still too […] Read more »
Senate Forecasts Aren’t Obvious. Just Take a Look at Kansas.
Races for the United States Senate feature the same drearily familiar elements as presidential contests: partisan polarization, ideological predictability and voters with fixed opinions about well-known politicians. But in Senate races, those elements are all a little smaller, and matter a little less, which makes the outcome of this fall’s […] Read more »
Slim Majority Expect Republicans to Win the Senate
Fifty-two percent of Americans say they expect the Republican Party to win in the U.S. Senate, while an even larger majority, 63%, say Republicans will retain their majority in the House of Representatives. CONT. Lydia Saad, Gallup Read more »
Misreading Senate forecasts
When I was in graduate school, deconstructionism was the intellectual rage with my humanities oriented friends. One of deconstruction’s central tenets is that “all reading is misreading.” I heard it all the time, but frankly, it never meant much to me until I started seeing reactions to the plethora of […] Read more »