Races for the United States Senate feature the same drearily familiar elements as presidential contests: partisan polarization, ideological predictability and voters with fixed opinions about well-known politicians.
But in Senate races, those elements are all a little smaller, and matter a little less, which makes the outcome of this fall’s battle for control of the Senate between Republicans and Democrats a little more unpredictable. That reality — welcome to those who like baseball games that end with a walk-off home run — often gets obscured by the profusion of polls and new election forecasting models. CONT.
John Harwood, New York Times