Ever since Donald Trump has risen to the top of the polls, Republican strategists have questioned whether those polls might be overestimating his support. There is evidence to support that theory. … The public polls can be misleading if nonvoting adults have substantially different views from primary voters. Usually, the […] Read more »
Here’s why Donald Trump won’t win the Republican presidential nomination
Donald Trump’s authoritative lead in early polling in the 2016 Republican race for the presidential nomination has left Americans excited, confused and afraid. Trump hasn’t been out of first place in national polling since he filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission in mid-July. Most polls have him […] Read more »
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
… But the problem isn’t just that the national polls at this stage in the race lack empirical power to predict the nomination; it’s also that they describe a fiction. I don’t mean to suggest that Donald Trump’s support in the polls is “fake.” I have no doubt that some […] Read more »
An Influential Debate? Not if You Trust Prediction Markets
Thursday night’s Republican primary debate was watched by a record-shattering 24 million people, and some pundits lauded it as the “best, classiest debate ever.” But for all the fireworks, nothing seems to have changed. At least that’s the message from political prediction markets, which remained largely unmoved by either the […] Read more »
A Nail-Biter in 2016
… The economy may not be at the top of voters’ minds in every election, but it is close. This is the principle underpinning the Moody’s Analytics presidential election model. The model predicts whether the Democratic or Republican presidential nominee will win the popular vote in each state and the […] Read more »
Everyone Is Already Freaking Out Over the 2016 Election Polls
It’s been a bad year for polls. They were wrong in forecasting a close vote in the Greek referendum last month, wrong in overstating the Labour Party’s strength in the British elections in May, off in predicting the outcomes in the Israeli election, and off in the Scottish independence referendum […] Read more »