… The economy may not be at the top of voters’ minds in every election, but it is close. This is the principle underpinning the Moody’s Analytics presidential election model. The model predicts whether the Democratic or Republican presidential nominee will win the popular vote in each state and the District of Columbia. …
The next president should be a Democrat. According to the model, the Democrat should win 270 electoral votes to 268 for the Republican. The key swing state to push the election to the Democrats is Virginia. CONT.
Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics