Election polls especially suffer from two specific types of measurement error: (1) election salience among voters at the time of the poll and (2) strategic voting decisions at the time of the vote which are at odds with poll responses. On point one, the research literature shows that the farther […] Read more »
Campaign polls are still variable. Votes are still predictable.
The heat of a presidential campaign is always a delicate time for the relationship between political scientists and political journalists. While there’s been more dialogue and understanding between these two types of analysts in recent years (much of it prompted by the ease of communication between the two worlds on […] Read more »
State of election markets: 408 Days
The previous week was punctuated by Scott Walker dropping out of the race for the GOP nomination on Monday, September 21 and Marco Rubio taking up all of his likelihood for victory (and some). The key date is Wednesday, September 16, which was the second presidential debate for the GOP. […] Read more »
Election Polling: When ‘Who Will Win?’ Beats ‘Who Do You Like?’
… Americans have watched for months—with 14 more months to go—as the poll numbers for Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Bush, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Bernie Sanders and other White House hopefuls have gyrated up and down, depending on the ebb and flow of the news and the debates. These […] Read more »
Yes, People Are Placing Bets On Politics. Here’s How
… The site is run by John Arisotle Phillips, who also heads one of the country’s largest political data gathering-operations. PredictIt has been online for a little less than a year, and allows traders to buy “yes” or “no” shares in specific questions about politics and upcoming elections. … If […] Read more »
Five Things You Need To Know Before Predicting The 2016 Election
In a different context, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called them the “known unknowns,” the critical questions that must be answered in order to better forecast the results of a campaign. His campaign was a war; ours is war by other means. With more than a year to go […] Read more »