It feels like déjà vu all over again: The polls in a major election were off by a wide margin. The surveys leading up to Tuesday’s gubernatorial election in Kentucky pointed to a close fight between Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Matt Bevin, with Conway holding a slight edge in […] Read more »
State of the election markets: After the GOP debate
The Republican primary got another jolt this week with Wednesday, October 28’s debate: Marco Rubio won and Jeb Bush lost. Rubio won because he beat up Bush, and they are the only two viable establishment candidates left in the race. … Ted Cruz and Ben Carson both had “strong debates” […] Read more »
Betting Markets Call Marco Rubio Front-Runner in G.O.P.
It’s official: Jeb Bush is no longer the leading contender to become the Republican candidate for president. Instead, prediction markets now rate Marco Rubio as far more likely to get the nod. One broad measure of the betting markets puts Mr. Rubio’s chances at 34 percent versus Mr. Bush’s at […] Read more »
Forget what you saw last night. Two simple reasons a Republican is likely to win in 2016.
Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways. Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican will be moving into the White House in 2017. […] Read more »
Early Iowa Presidential Polls a Better Predictor Than National Ones
Last month, national polls by CNN/ORC, Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journal got plenty of attention, and they certainly helped readers and viewers understand what is going on in the Republican and Democratic presidential contests. But if history is any guide, early national polls are far less valuable in […] Read more »
The Power of Precise Predictions
… But when people make non-falsifiable predictions, they feel less accountable. After all, if a prediction can never be disproved, then it poses no reputational risk. That lack of accountability, in turn, encourages overconfidence and even more extreme predictions. Non-falsifiable predictions thus undermine the quality of our discourse. They also […] Read more »