… Which is a better indicator of the public’s mood and Mrs. Clinton’s chances, the president’s approval rating or the number of Americans who think the country is on the “right track”? Despite all of the doom and gloom in America, President Obama’s approval rating is pretty good. It’s been […] Read more »
Why Our Model Is Bullish On Trump, For Now
Further polling since the Republican National Convention has tended to confirm our impressions from earlier this week: Donald Trump has almost certainly gotten a convention bounce, and has moved into an extremely close race with Hillary Clinton. … Trump’s position in our polls-plus forecast, which adjusts for convention bounces, is […] Read more »
Election Update: Trump Gets Convention Bounce, Drawing Polls To Dead Heat
The first few polls conducted after last week’s Republican convention suggested a small to medium convention bounce for Donald Trump, with Hillary Clinton holding on to narrow leads in several surveys. But a series of polls released Monday morning show bigger gains for Trump. CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Don’t Pay Too Much Attention to Polls for a While
Donald Trump officially became the Republican party’s nominee Thursday night, and on Monday, the Democratic convention begins in Philadelphia. In the coming weeks, you can expect lots of polls — and headlines — suggesting new insight into the state of the presidential race. With some caveats, our advice is: Don’t […] Read more »
Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004
There has been a lot of polling over the past few days in advance of the Republican National Convention, which got underway Monday in Cleveland. But it mostly confirmed the conclusion our election forecast models had arrived at late last week: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 3 or 4 […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Has a 76% Chance to Win the Presidency
For now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump to become president of the United States. … This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each state and on roughly 300 state and […] Read more »