The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that a Major League Baseball player will strike […] Read more »
Clinton is more optimistic than Trump. But optimism doesn’t predict winners anymore.
… I examined Clinton’s and Trump’s convention speeches using a technique I’ve applied to almost every major-party nominee’s acceptance address going back to 1900, and I found that Clinton is indeed more optimistic than Trump by most measures. But Democrats may want to temper their optimism about that result. The […] Read more »
Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls
There’s no longer any doubt that the party conventions have shifted the presidential election substantially toward Hillary Clinton. She received a larger bounce from her convention than Donald Trump got from his, but Trump has continued to poll so poorly in state and national surveys over the past two days […] Read more »
Hanging Tough: Why we’ve made only minor changes to our Electoral College ratings since March
… The Crystal Ball has been an island of stability in a chaotic, broiling sea. How can that be? Haven’t we been paying attention to the considerable shifts back and forth over the last month? Don’t we read the polls and other sites’ projections, which bounce up and down from […] Read more »
When are election polls most reliable?
A new round of US election polls have shifted momentum behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the three-month dash to November. … But do the recent batch of surveys paint an accurate picture of what will happen when voters head to the polls in November? Not quite, according to experts […] Read more »
New Consumer Survey Contains a Big Hint That Clinton Will Win the Election
A new question added to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers could turn out to be more accurate than ordinary opinion polls in predicting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. In June and July, respondents to the monthly survey were asked who they expected to become the next […] Read more »