Last week, Politico reported that Hillary Clinton’s campaign was set to employ a “run out the clock” strategy, declining to respond to recurring controversies even at the risk of seeming nonresponsive. In the abstract, such a strategy could make sense. Clinton has a fairly clear lead in the polls. There […] Read more »
Generic Ballot Forecasting Model: Democrats Could Take Back Senate but Republicans Likely to Hold House With Reduced Majority
… At present, Republicans hold a 247 to 186 seat majority in the House of Representatives (with vacancies in two formerly Democratic-held seats that the party will easily hold onto). All 435 House seats and 34 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election this year. In reality, however, […] Read more »
The Age of Post-Truth Politics
… It is possible to live in a world of data but no facts. Think of how we employ weather forecasts: We understand that it is not a fact that it will be 75 degrees on Thursday, and that figure will fluctuate all the time. Weather forecasting works in a […] Read more »
What Are the Chances That Democrats Retake the House?
… A House takeover by Democrats is no small task. They would need to pick up 30 seats, and, as of today, it’s hard to identify 30 seats where Republicans are in serious danger. But if Mrs. Clinton maintains her lead, some of the conditions for big Democratic gains might […] Read more »
Never forget: The 2016 presidential election is supposed to be one that Republicans can win
… Back in January 2014, I wrote a post titled: “The Democratic Party’s uphill battle to 270 electoral votes in 2016.” Ha-ha, right? Silly me, right? Not at all. At that moment in 2014, given economic growth and President Obama’s popularity and the challenge of winning the White House for […] Read more »
Political scientists predict Clinton will win 347 electoral votes
Asking experts to predict what is going to happen is probably one of the oldest forecasting methods available. When it comes to predicting election outcomes, we expect experts to have experience in reading and interpreting polls, putting them in historical context, and estimating the likely effects of upcoming campaign events. […] Read more »