A new national CNN/ORC poll made headlines Tuesday morning. This poll gives GOP nominee Donald Trump a marginal 1-point lead over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton among likely voters, and 2 points in a four-way contest including Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. … Interestingly, when […] Read more »
Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking
… The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 […] Read more »
Why Clinton supporters shouldn’t panic
… This race was always going to tighten, as I have been telling audiences for my election talks for the past month. Those who point to 1964 or 1972 as electoral precedents in which an ideologically extreme candidate got crushed are misreading history. As Andrew Gelman points out, the results […] Read more »
Election forecasters try to bring some order to a chaotic political year
For those who wish this long and often dismal presidential campaign were over, help is already here. To the rescue have come the forecasters — political scientists with prediction models that have already called the election, in some cases many months ago. Their work will soon be published collectively in […] Read more »
Senate 2016: Flip Flop
It seems like only yesterday when the Republicans took over the U.S. Senate. Actually, nearly two years have passed since that big moment, when the GOP gained nine seats and took a 54-46 majority (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats) after eight years of Democratic control. But this […] Read more »
How Much Is Donald Trump Hurting the G.O.P.? Here’s a Way to See
There is no reason to speculate about whether nominating Donald J. Trump has cost the Republican Party support in this presidential election. There is plenty of data to demonstrate that it has. CONT. Lynn Vavreck (UCLA), New York Times Read more »